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China produces about 70% of the world’s batteries and over half of its EVs. The spot price of lithium carbonate hit a more than two-year low of 115,500 yuan ($16,185.54) per metric ton this week. It is likely to drop to as low as 80,000 yuan next year as global supply continues to rise, four China-based analysts said.
Photo: Reuters. Lithium prices in China — the world’s largest producer of the key electric vehicle battery metal — are set to tank in 2024 with global miners poised to bump up supplies. Prices of lithium carbonate in China could fall by more than 30% from the current level next year, analysts say.
For comparison, in 2022 lithium prices reached 590,000 yuan per ton (~83,000 USD/ton). So, the cost of lithium dropped significantly last year. Concerns about domestic overcapacity and increased price competition may escalate industry rivalry in 2024.
It is likely to drop to as low as 80,000 yuan next year as global supply continues to rise, four China-based analysts said. China’s CITIC Futures said it expects Chinese lithium carbonate prices as low as 80,000 yuan a ton in 2024, averaging at around 100,000 yuan.
Prices outside China tend to follow a similar trend. Benchmark lithium carbonate prices to China, Japan and South Korea of $18.50 per kg on Thursday, down 77% from a peak of $81 per kg in November 2022. The price plunge will hit high-cost lithium producers, but offer some support to a slowing EV sector.
Further decline in lithium salt prices is anticipated in 2024, facing supply-demand imbalances. High-tech lithium battery research data showed increasing market concentration, reducing demand for upstream suppliers, causing price and gross profit declines in the lithium battery materials industry.
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Live ChatPrices of lithium carbonate in China have fallen to about $22,900 per tonne, about half their peak in June. That compares with prices hitting a record high of almost $83,600 …
Live ChatThe second driver is a continued downturn in battery metal prices. That includes lithium and cobalt, and nearly 60% of the cost of batteries is from metals. When we talk about the battery from, let''s say, 2023 to all the way …
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Live ChatWe believe China lithium price will see strong support at US$8,600/t (excl. VAT). As of 10 Sep, the spot price of China Li2CO3 was US$8,900/t (excl. VAT) or Rmb72.5k/t (incl. …
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